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传阅:凡尔赛和平的经济及政治后果

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新强国崛起

“一战”的第三个冬天到来时,英国财政部一直预测会出现的财政危机终于露相。这时,英国在欧洲大陆的战争已经完全依赖于美国。协约国内部的金融体制,都有赖于英国向美国借贷美元以支付战费的能力。1916年10月,英国外交部成立跨部门委员会,研究这个形势。经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯是财政部的代表,他详细分析了英国对美国日益依赖的后果。他估计,在未来6个月里,英国每个月将要在美国花掉2.5亿美元,而其中的2亿美元必须从美国借贷。时任财政大臣麦金纳圈阅:“如果目前的形势继续下去,我可以斗胆说,在明年6月或者之前,美利坚合众国总统就能够,如果他希望的话,向我们强加任何条件。”英国开始依赖美国的现实,促使内阁重新审视英国的战争目标。与此同时,兰斯道恩勋爵在1916年11月写出一份备忘录,要求立即开始和平谈判。 Read more…